The Fallen Angle

Here we are, on the last day of January 2025. Yet another year has passed - 2024 has been written. As much as my heart may yearn to write regularly, a once a year update might be the sustainable long term frequency. On the whole - on an aggregate basis - 2024 has been rather kind (not perfect of course) - I have to admit, but the tragectory is a positive one. As per usual practice, I will be reflecting on my experience in 2024, justapoxing it against the aspirations, assumptions, worries and expectations set out at the start of 2024, answering the questions I may have had, since life can only be lived forward, but understood backwards. Here are some highlights of 2024: - Tesla opened at 24x, and closed at ~400. It went to a peak of 488 in Dec, largely due to the euhoria around Trumps' presidential election victory. Although the journey throughout the year was not as rosy as it appears. Tesla bottomed at 138 somewhere in april, and stayed around 200 for large parts of the year, only breaking out into the 300s and 400s in Nov/Dec. Definitely not an easy journey. Psychologically, it was tough even for battle hardened me. Many times, I contemplated throwing in the towel and investing in the index instead. Thankfully, I managed to get back into the stock before it brokeout. It is now an autonomy/energy/software/AI story. These have to materialise to support the valuation and to grow into a multi trillion dollar company as the narrative is suggesting. My hope was for tesla to close around 300. In that regard, reality overperformed and exceeded my expectation. 2025 is promising. Tesla expects over 50% yoy growth in energy after a more than doubling in 2024. Tesla will be releasing cheaper vehicles in 1H 2025. FSD unsupervised scheduled for June 2025 in limited locations. Promising indeed, but it will most likely be a while more before these are reflected as tangible and meaningful earninngs and profit. I am expecting flat to slight growth in car delivery in 2025. But really, the autonomy story / energy story is the needle mover. Tesla - being the very volatile stock - can easily break to the upside or not. My personal aspiration would be a 550 close at the end of 2025. Anything above 500, and I am satisfied. As much as I hope for a smooth year price action, I am also wary and weary of how low it can go. I hope the year's low stays well above 300, otherwise it will once again be difficult for the psyshic. Honestly, if Tesla can pull off unsupervised FSD in multiple states successfully, I think that would significantly push the stock price up - most optimistic but definitely within the realm of possible outcomes. As of writing, tesla is hovering around 390-400 (NW ~5.8M). I have also sold around 300k worth of tesla stocks to free up a cash reserve, in anticipation of a possible retirement next year. 300k should last 1.5-2 years, cushioning me from the volatile nature of the stock market, allowing me to enjoy my life as a retiree without worrying about having to sell more stock at undesirable prices. Little boy Atlas is now 15 months old. This past year has indeed brought about plentiful milestones. He can now walk, run, communicate non verbally, and somewhat verbally with a burgeoning expressive vocabulary of around 10 words. Receptive vocabulary wise, he is probably at around 70-100 words/pictures. We continue to prioritize his happiness, education (flash card, reading) and health (nutritious home cook food). May 2025 bring about more milestones, adventure and lots of laughter and love. Aspiration would be to have him speak in sentences by the end of the year (short sentences) and to understand basic arithmetic involving addition. I do not intend for him to go to school till he is 3 years old. He needs to be able to express himself well prior to attending school. He is a friendly and sociable boy. Dont think he is shy and introverted. Still contemplating whether it is necessary, worthwile to send him to a good school (Nan Hua Primary). I reiterate my desire to not have any more children. One is enough. Healthwise, both my wife and myself are still on biologics. She is on 9 week cycle and I am on 4 weeks. Progress for me has been great. The dorsal of my feet has healed well. I am 95-99% normal. For wife, it is less satisfactory, I would estimate her healing to be around 75-85%. Hopefully with proper rest and healthy diet and lifestyle, we can improve to 80-90%. Health is important - very important. Aspire to continue on an upward trajectory towards better health (Skin or not). Workwise, 2024 has been a definite improvement over 2023. In terms of efficiency, I work less. I only teach pure chem - no more combined chem (Fidelio), no more bio (sophia). I teach mainly group lessons. I earn more. It was still a busy year, especially the second half the year (where I had to prepare updated practical and revision materials). Earned around 150k. Went for a great holiday in korea for 3 weeks in dec as aspired (will talk more). Aspiration for 2025, is to further reduce workload to a minimum. I need to enjoy or at least find the pace and journey throughout the year manageable. I need to learn to enjoy the process, and not be fixated on the end of the journey before enjoying myself. I will do more facial, SPA, messages as indulgence for myself and wife. The aim is to get till August still feeling fine. Aim is to make another 150k (likely more), while working less. As of now, I am already able to earn 13k++ / 14k in Jan, so it broods well - financially. I have 8 classes at the moment. Am really thinking about retiring next year if tesla allows. One of the two things are likely to happen. 1. Continue with only S4 in 2026 (max of 3 classes) 2. Completely retire and travel in 2026 Will decide and inform Eric by May/June this year. In fact I have already told Russell that I will end in 202 after finishing up the S4 batch (Kha Leong and co). I really enjoyed the korean trip in Dec 2024. That freedom and autonomy, to do whatever I want, whenever I want, wherever I want. I miss those 3 weeks, where my to do list was empty. My phone calander was empty. Those late night walk alone in the streets of Korea. It was liberating. I love it. Really hope that I can make that a permanent fixture of my life. To travel freely - an aspiration I hope to turn into reality in 2026. If skin health continues to improve (I maintain 99%) and wife improves to 85% and beyond, little boy grows well. If tesla can stay above 500 and I do not make stupid trading mistakes that decrease wealth (Having 300k in cash should greatly reduce that probability). If I can further reduce my work committment either complete or semi retirement in 2026. I really hope to travel for another 3 weeks or even more (if I completely stop work). I really miss that feeling of freedom; complete and utter freedom from the constrains of time, work and societal obligations. Faith wise, I hope to contribute more via regular donation to the various organizations. I hope to attend church, I hope to purchase a portrait of Jesus and put it in the living room. I hope to baptize Atlas latest by 2026. I am learning korean right now.. wondering if I will stick to it by years end. Financially we should hit 10M when tesla hits around 700 barring any further trading mistakes. Will we see our first 8 figures in 2025? I feel there is a chance especially in the second half of 2025, should FSD really materials in an ideal manner. Otherwise it is more likely to happen in 2026. Finally, I hope to feel happier in 2025. I would rate 2024 a 7/10 (in part due to the surge in tesla price by years end). I would hope for 2025 to be a 8 and above, and for 2026 to be labelled as a year of excitement. Lets work towards simplying our life even further.